By RaptorTalk

DeMar DeRozan has landed at Air Canada Centre and Bryan Colangelo hopes he can fill the Raptor’s glaring weakness at shooting guard, next year and for many years to come.

The selection of DeRozan was a bit of a gamble which could pay huge dividends if he develops into the kind of player the Raptors feel he can become. Repeatedly, NBA analysts and insiders referred to DeMar has having one of the biggest upsides of any prospect in the '09 draft class.

      

DeRozan has the raw physical tools that made the Raptors’ brain trust drool as they watched him workout in a gym in Oakland last month. Our sources told us a month ago that Colangelo had honed in early on DeMar and nothing transpired leading up to the draft to make Bryan change his mind.

Chad Ford of ESPN had this to say about the ninth pick in the 2009 draft:

“The Raptors swung for the fences with this pick, getting a player with as much upside as anyone else in the draft. DeRozan is long and athletic and can run the floor. If he improves his jump shot and ball handling, he could be one of the best players to come out of this draft. Those are big ifs, but the Raptors made a worthy gamble.”


No doubt, the kid is raw and still unpolished in many respects. His long range jumper needs work, as do his ball handling skills. But his athleticism, a commitment to defence and a developing mid range game all point to someone who has the potential to become a solid NBA pro - if not a star.


DeMar finished last season strong

Even though he only played a year at USC, there are some important clues from his stint in college as to the type of player he can become in two or three years.

DeRozan showed marked improvement throughout his freshman year. In his final seven games, of which five were pressure tournament games, the newest Raptor averaged 19 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists and shot 54% from the field. The kid got better as the season progressed and he performed his best under pressure.

And instead of sitting around at the end of the season waiting for the draft and a guaranteed million dollar NBA contract, he headed up to Oakland to work out and become a better player.

In fact, had DeMar stayed in college for another season and continued to improve it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he could have been a top five selection in the stronger draft class of 2010.

Most importantly, DeMar seems to have the mental make-up to succeed. Jay Triano pointed out that he is very coachable. His early media interviews show a composed and confident young man who is ready to take on a new challenge. The next step in his growth as a player is for DD and the Raptors staff to work hard and begin to improve upon his weaknesses this off-season, starting in Vegas summer league.

And while his 39” inch vertical and Carter-esque mannerisms makes comparisons to Vince Carter inevitable – the comparisons end there. In our estimation, a realistic future view of DeMar DeRozan may be a hybrid between Andre Igoudala and Richard Jefferson and not Carter-like at all.

If that’s how the DeRozan story plays out, then Bryan Colangelo will look back and feel he did very well with the 9th selection in the 2009 draft.

 By RaptorTalk

The Raptors are getting close to having to make some very important decisions regarding the path they follow with Chris Bosh.

Within the next three weeks, Bryan Colangelo needs to decide if he trades Bosh for the best package available or if he chooses to hold on to Bosh and offer him a max deal in 2010. Of course, we all know that Bosh will not stay in Toronto for anything other than max money – 6 years/ $130 million.

While my personal preference would be to flip Bosh for a package of younger players and/or draft picks – let’s assume Bryan is leaning towards keep Bosh long term.    
                                                                                                                                   
                     

Is MLSE willing to be a big luxury tax payor?

Here is the key issue he needs to consider and he most certainly must make the MLSE Board aware of.

Whether signing Bosh to a max deal is either good for the franchise or detrimental to the franchise is predicated specifically on what MLSE's plans are regarding the luxury tax.

If the Raptors are willing to become a luxury tax team in the next year or two, then signing Bosh to a max deal may be considered a good decision.

If the Raptors are not willing to become a luxury tax team in the next year or two, then signing Bosh to a max deal is a very bad decision.

Rewarding Chris Bosh with a deal without the organization being willing to become a tax team is very risky. Unless the Raps hit lightning in a bottle with their draft picks and off season moves, it is unlikely they will ever assemble enough good parts around Bosh to win.

Despite glimpses of greatness, Chris Bosh is simply not as good as the small handful of superstar players who are in fact deserving of max deals like Lebron, Duncan, Kobe, Dwight, Chris Paul and D. Wade. CB4 is just not as talented or as dominant, nor will he ever be. And in what is becoming a guard dominant league, his impact is less significant than it might have been earlier.

The real financial straight jacket will be felt by the Raptors in the latter half of his max deal, when Chris is earning well in excess of $20 million per year.  Colangelo needs understand that over the longer term Bosh's bad knees may limit his effectiveness. This could be eerily similar to Jermaine O'Neal - who provides a good comparison as to what a Bosh deal may look like down the road should his knees get worse and his on-court effectiveness drops.

It's a risky move

Don't get me wrong, Bosh is a very, very good player. But signing him to a max deal without stepping into luxury tax territority in order to put a strong supporting cast around him is a very risky manoeuver.

History has proven that over the long term it is not smart decision to pay max money to a second tier elite player – which is where Chris is. The list of max money players this year included names like Steve Francis, Stephan Marbury and Jermaine O'Neal. In their day they were good, but not good enough. In hindsight, all look like very bad deals.

With a new CBA on the horizon, a cap that will likely drop and the lessons learned from max deals being paid to second tier players like Alan Houston and Jalen Rose – Bryan needs to know that if he locks up Bosh for big dollars, MLSE has no choice but to become a significant luxury tax payor if they ever hope to go deep in the playoffs.

In today's salary cap world only a top ten player is worth max money and even then I think that may be too many. When you look at it realistically, Bosh is not a top ten player - even though awhile back I felt he may have been. Arguably Bosh is behind Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Dwight, Duncan, Chris Paul, Pierce, Garnett, Dirk, Parker, Carmelo and Yao.

That's twelve players right there who are likely better than Bosh and of that list, I would only pay max money to five of them. And this is not just a Bosh issue. I wouldn't pay max money to Carmelo Anthony either - another solid second tier elite player.

No doubt, the next thirty days will be very intriguing for all Raptors fans. And it all revolves around the decisions Bryan Colangelo makes about CB4.

 By RaptorTalk


The talk after media day focused on Chris Bosh’s statement that he would "not demand a trade".

While that sounded good, we know from someone who was personally at the media scrum that those comments were literally squeezed out of a sweating Chris Bosh by Michael Grange and Bruce Arthur’s persistent prodding and questioning. 

                          

What is apparent is that right now Bosh’s future rests in the hands of Bryan Colangelo. Chris’ trade value is at its highest this summer and Bryan knows it. A year from now, Bosh holds most of the cards because he will be an unrestricted free agent.

As we’ve said before, we still don’t expect Bosh to walk. He stands to lose $30 million if he pulls a T-Mac and in these tough economic times that is sheer lunacy. Money talks.
 
If the Raptors do in fact sign Bosh to a max deal, then they have no choice but to become a luxury tax team if they ever hope of taking a serious run because CB4 can’t carry a team on his back like Lebron or Kobe.

Is Bosh a top ten NBA talent?

Is Bosh a top ten NBA player? Yes.

Is Bosh an elite NBA player worthy of a max deal? No.

That doesn’t mean Bosh won’t get max money, but in our opinion – there are only a half dozen players who really deserve max money and Bosh isn’t one of them.

Bosh is nowhere near the level of Lebron or Kobe and a few other real superstars. You can't win with Bosh unless you surround him some more high priced help. Surrounding Bosh with low ticket players means the Raps are mired in mediocrity which means the Raptors must  be prepared to becoming a luxury tax team.


TSN's resident hoops blogger Tim Chisholm made an interesting post regarding Bosh that is in line with our point of view:

" Bosh is going to need a lot of help if he is going to win meaningful games in the NBA.

That is a point not to be understated.

If this team keeps Bosh, they actually NEED Bargnani scoring nearly 20 ppg and Marion and Calderon averaging 15 and 10. Bosh needs help at that level if he hopes to beat a lot of the teams in the NBA, because as talented as he is, he isn't at the level of his contemporaries that can simply win games by themselves.

He isn't Dwyane Wade, who can lead a weak Miami team from the basement of the NBA to the upper-reaches of his Conference. "

The point is that Chris Bosh (while very, very good) is not on the same level as Lebron or Kobe or Garnett or Howard or Dwayne or Duncan or maybe Chris Paul. Bosh needs a much stronger supporting cast to bring a winner to Toronto than do any of those other guys. 

Flip any of those top six or seven superstars with Bosh and the Raptors probably make the playoffs this season. That’s the difference between the NBA’s upper eschleon elite and Chris Bosh. If those players are A+, then Bosh is an A.

No player wins on his own. Not Lebron, not Kobe and not Shaq in his prime. Even Michael "Batman" Jordan needed Scottie "Robin" Pippen. The difference with Bosh is that he doesn't need a Robin - CB4 needs another Batman at his side.

Which is why we don't believe Bosh deserves max money. A GM needs an extra (say) $5 million per year for another piece to play next to Bosh that you wouldn't need if you had Lebron, Kobe, Dwayne, etc.

Raptors win if Bosh's contract maxes out at $22 million

Bosh is deserving of a high paying contract that plateaus around $21 or $22 million at the high end and not at the almost $27 million that he would receive in a max money deal.

The dilemma facing Bryan Colangelo is whether Chris Bosh would willingly accept a little less than max money so that the Raptors can have more financial flexibility down the road to build a championship squad (following the Detroit Pistons model). The answer is likely ‘no’.

Because of that, Bryan will seriously entertain offers for Chris Bosh between now and Draft Day. If the right offer presents itself, Bryan will pull the trigger and Chris will no longer be a Toronto Raptor.

If nothing materializes, expect Bosh to re-sign a max money deal in Toronto during the following summer.

At that point, MLSE better be prepared to be a luxury tax payer if there is to be any hope of bringing enough decent pieces to make a run at a championship ring when you will have so much of your available cap being paid to one single player - who is not named Kobe or Lebron.

 By RaptorTalk


The post season speculation and rumors around Raptorland began to heat up the day after Toronto’s season ended.

It started on the FAN590 with Doug Smith, Jack Armstrong and Doug Maclean and it continued on RaptorsTV Hoops later in the day.

Doug Smith of the Toronto Star said that its 95/5 likely that Jay Triano is appointed the full-time head coach by the first week of May. Jay will get 2 years and a third year team option starting at around $2 million to $2.25 million with incentives.

Apparently Jay and Bryan get along very well (which Sam and Bryan did not) and Bryan is most definitely willing to take the ‘interim’ tag off Jay. 

        

Marc Iavaroni will be joining the Raptors

Doug Maclean said he heard from sources that former Memphis Grizzlies head coach, Marc Iavaroni is a lock to be the lead assistant and that he's already got a condo lined up here in Toronto. Doug Smith agreed and it seems that this is public knowledge among those close to the team. There was more to Iavaroni's consulting assignment than we were led to believe.

Word is that the Triano/Iavaroni deal has been done for as long as 3-1/2 weeks.

Speculation is that Gord Herbert will be back, but the rest of the staff including Alex English and Mike Evans will probably move elsewhere next season. The coaching staff this year as a unit was too passive and Iavaroni will bring some intensity along with a strong defensive skillset.

Of course, if Triano stumbles we can immediately cue the rumors that Iavaroni is ready to assume the head coaching position!

On another front, Doug Smith said he's spoken to Bryan Colangelo and it seems that Chris Bosh will almost certainly be back next season and that Bosh seems more optimistic about the Raptors future than he has in a while.

With that said, the vibe we get from Jack Armstrong and Eric Smith is that Bryan needs to seriously consider any and all offers regarding Chris Bosh. The team simply can’t afford to let him walk in 2010 and get nothing in return. Doug Smith's response to that is the Raps then end up with a ton of cap room to spend on 2010 free agents to which Paul Jones responded, 'so did Chicago a few years ago and no one wanted to take the Bulls money." Touche!

More Raptor rumors

Other Raptorland speculation according to Doug Smith included:

- Anthony Parker will almost certainly be back next year in a new position on the bench as a back-up 2/1.

- Joey Graham will almost certainly NOT be back next year

- Whether Shawn Marion returns depends on money. The Raps want him back, but only at the right price. However, Toronto can offer Marion the highest annual increases. Thinking is that Marion could be had for $6 million to $7 million per year.


Jack and Doug spoke about Chris' comment after the game that the Raptors were a potential top 4 seed in the East if they had this squad together and healthy since October.  Both Jack and Smith felt that was not realistic, but they agreed that with a couple of the right additions (like at the SG spot and better depth) the Raptors could finish ahead of Chicago, Detroit and Philly.

On the other hand, Jack Armstrong was spot on when he said “don’t be fooled by a 9-4 record down the stretch”.

No doubt, changes need to be made sooner than later to this roster which simply did not get the job done.