By Peter D. Walker

To tank or not to tank? That has been the question on the minds of some Raptor fans over the past year – as absurd as that may sound.

After this week’s draft lottery, I think the answer is clear – it is great that the Raptors did not tank in 2006-2007!

At issue is the line of logic that some people subscribe to which is that the Raptors could have benefited from another trip to the NBA Lottery in Secaucus, NJ. They reason that another lotto stud next to Bosh and Bargnani would have solidified the Raptors’ championship aspirations for years to come.

While the Raptors could certainly have used the talents of Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, the odds of the Raptors landing either of these two phenoms were extremely remote. 

                                     

                                          View 2007 NBA Draft Lottery

In fact, the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies who clearly were in full tanking mode since the All-Star break and sported the two worst records in the NBA did not land either of these two young studs. Instead, the Portland Trailblazers and Seattle Supersonics were the big lottery winners.

It appears obvious that the NBA Lottery system worked as it is designed to work. You can roll the dice and hope your ineptitude gets you the coveted #1 pick, but you must realize that this is no lock. In recent memory, only the 2003 Cleveland Cavaliers came out as winners after doing everything possible to finish dead last and have a shot at Akron’s Lebron James.

For the Toronto Raptors to have ended up back in the upper echelon of the lottery, they would have needed to win less than 25 games in a year when they eventually won 47 games. The only way this was going to happen was if Bryan Colangelo made not one single move last off-season. That means no T.J. Ford, no Anthony Parker, no Jorge Garbajosa, no Kris Humprhries, no Rasho Nesterovic and no Juan Dixon to name a few.

Let’s assume that Bryan stood pat for a year in hopes of landing Durant or Oden and acquired not one of the players mentioned. First, odds are that the Raptors would not get either of those prime targets. The risk becomes even greater when you consider that Ford, Parker and Garbajosa would quite likely not be available to Toronto in 2007-08, thus leaving gaping holes in the roster.

It becomes more complex an issue when you factor in the stagnation in player development which occurs with constant losing. Does Calderon develop as rapidly? Would Bosh improve? For that matter, would he even sign a contract extension?

Bryan Colangelo, Maurizio Gheradini and Wayne Embry made the right moves by being bold last off-season. Any plan that revolved around ‘tanking for one more year’ was completely ridiculous. Thank goodness, Raptor management ignores the suggestions of chat room posters and dial-in show callers.