By Walter Dubowec

Bryan Colangelo is not walking away from the 2006 draft, empty-handed.

There can be no doubt that Andrea Bargnani’s performance so far this season has been a huge disappointment. He spends more time on the bench than on the floor. No one thought he’d perform this poorly. There are many reasons to explain what’s happened, but suffice to say – none matter. Andrea is not playing well. End of discussion.

              

There are many now who are suggesting that Bryan Colangelo made a huge error by drafting Il Mago with the first overall pick and that Andrea’s selection is not going to get any better. It’s a mistake that will tarnish Colangelo’s tenure, forever.

I disagree. If Bryan can turn this situation into a positive, no one will care.  For example, Joe Dumar’s championship with the Pistons certainly trumps his draft day selection of Darko Milicic ahead of Anthony, Bosh and Wade.

First, to put the Raptors’ 2006 pick in perspective – Toronto was picking #1 in what was likely the weakest draft in a decade. There was no consensus number one pick, suffice to say that most had Bargnani ranked top three.

The draft was not a strong one. This was largely due to the new 19 year old age limit. If that rule was not in place, the Raptors would have in all probability selected Greg Oden.

From the 2006 draft class, Brandon Roy appears to be the only superstar at this point. Lets be honest, almost no one had Roy in the top five. Tyrus Thomas, Lamarcus Aldridge and Adam Morrison are not going to be players who will turnaround a franchise.

Nonetheless, all is not lost with the selection of Andrea Bargnani.

There are three reasonable scenarios to consider

Over the next year or two, there are three probable scenarios with Bargnani, of which two have very positive outcomes:

1. BAD: What we see is what we get and Andrea is no better than Hoffa. After his contract ends he goes back to Europe and the Raptors have the biggest first overall bust since Michael Olkawande.

2. GOOD: Andrea gets his head screwed back on, works on his game in the off-season, puts this year behind him and evolves into a very good NBA player. At this point, becoming a Mehmet Okur type player is not impossible.

3. GOOD: Bryan realizes Bargnani is not the guy he thought he would become and Colangelo trades Andrea to a GM who is enamoured by the 'potential' of a 7 foot, 3 point shooting big man, who is betters suited to the PF position. Bargnani is flipped for a player and/or draft picks who become core pieces of the Raptors’ future. In fact, Andrea may really come into his own as a PF, playing in an offence with a traditional center and a slashing wing player. Despite how poorly Bargnani performs, another GM may believe a change of environment could unlock Bargnani’s potential.

The least likely scenario is #1.

The way I envision this playing out is either (1) Bargnani develops into a solid NBA player or (2) Bryan Colangelo is going to trade him.

I believe that once all is said and done - the Raptors end up with something of considerable value which will be used to strengthen this team.  Bryan Colangelo will not allow the Bargnani  draft pick to deliver nothing to the franchise. He’s too shrewd.

All is not lost with the Andrea Bargnani pick.