By RaptorTalk

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the Toronto Raptors having their hands tied because they are a slim $1,100 below the luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that matters to Bryan Colangelo. He knows there are holes in this team and it is not unreasonable to assume he makes a bold move – even if it means paying some tax.

                     

Look, Bryan didn't acquire Jermaine O'Neal so the Raptors could finish 41-41 again.

Facts are that ex-GM Rob Babcock was run out of town because MLSE was terrified by the prospect of a collapse of the season ticket base which would lead to a significant decline in the value of the franchise. Bryan Colangelo was brought in to bring a winner fast - and stay there! MLSE does not want another 'five year rebuilding plan' and a step-back this year is not in the Raptors plans.

Based on that, I don't think that MLSE is overly concerned about the luxury tax IF Bryan can make a trade which puts the Raptors into the upper eschelon of the NBA.

This is the exact same situation Boston faced last year. They had two superstars (Pierce and Allen) and knew they needed a third all-star to move to the next level - even though Kevin Garnett put them into luxury tax territory.

41-41 will hit MLSE in the pocketbook

Let’s assume the Raptors finish at 41-41 - which is not unrealistic. One could assume a loss of at least 1,000 season seat holders (comparable to this year's drop).

A loss of only 900 lower bowl season ticket holders equals a loss of $7 million in revenue.

Plus, MLSE won’t be getting those STH's back anytime soon - so the loss can be multiplied over a number of years. With the present tough economy, it won't be easy to find people willing to drop big bucks on Platinums to replace those STH's who don't renew.

Plus, if the Raptors struggle and fail to make the play-offs, you can add another loss of $4 to $6 million in lost revenue per playoff round.

In a worse case scenario where the Raptors miss the playoffs and lose season seat holders, MLSE could see a loss of $10 to $15 million by standing pat. It is entirely possible to see a loss of $20 million between lost playoff revenue and season seat cancellations.

So, despite the loss the threat of becoming a luxury tax payer - there is a plausible scenario whereby it makes financial sense for the Raptors to go over the luxury tax threshold.

The Raptors need their own big three

If the Raptors can trade Parker + Hump and/or Kapono and acquire an elite swing man with 3 years left on his contract - I think they go for it.

Imagine a team with Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'Neal, Jose Calderon and new superstar “X” at Small Forward, along with an ever-improving Andrea Bargnani off the bench. The Raptors could definitely challenge Boston!

Talent wins, baby! And the Raptors have some elite talent in place - but they are missing a piece to the puzzle. However, a creative Colangelo should be able to make the move the Raps need to become serious Eastern Conference contenders.

What if Bosh gets disillusioned and leaves?

The other issue in play is that I don't think MLSE is willing to stumble through this season at .500 and potentially see Bosh leave in 2010. If they are, then next season the Raptors need to be prepared to let Jermaine O’Neal's contract expire and trade Chris Bosh for picks and young players. Of course, that means starting the rebuilding process all over again.

IMO, IF Bryan sees the right trade scenario (to acquire an elite SG or SF), he will definitely pull the trigger - even if it puts Toronto into luxury tax territory.