The Numbers That Might Make Colangelo Consider Trading Chris Bosh If The Right Deal Came Along
By RaptorTalkThere has been a lot of discussion about Chris Bosh's future with the Toronto Raptors. Bottomline is that it is unlikely Chris Bosh will sign elsewhere.
Odds are he will take the Raptors guaranteed cash. I can't see Chris walking away from the $34 million additional dollars that Toronto can offer. Remember, his next contract won't be as lucrative because he will be in his thirties and the new CBA will not be as player-friendly.
And 'no', Bosh will not make up the difference in marketing dollars if he goes to a big US market, particularly when sponsors are cutting back on endorsement deals.
After CB4 re-ups with Toronto and if Chris is still unhappy, he can 'pull a Vince' and demand to be traded. That way he gets his max deal and he can move on out of Toronto.
Here is a recap of Bosh's max deal salary numbers which Toronto can offer, with his age(s) in each contract year:
Year 1 - $17.25 Mill - (26/27)
Year 2 - $18.97 Mill - (27/28)
Year 3 - $20.87 Mill - (28/29)
Year 4 - $22.95 Mill - (29/30)
Year 5 - $25.25 Mill - (30/31)
Year 6 - $27.78 Mill - (31/32)
Total - $133 Million over six years
Basically Bosh can resign with Toronto for 6 years and $133 million guaranteed or leave as a free agent for 5 years and $99 million - a difference of $34 million.
Max deals can be bad deals
Now, let's look at the biggest max deals in the NBA today and see if we can learn anything from what has transpired over the past few years. Here is a list of the top ten NBA salaries:
1. Kevin Garnett (Boston Celtics, forward): $24,751,934
2. Jermaine O’Neal (Toronto Raptors, forward/center): $21,372,000
3. Jason Kidd (Dallas Mavericks, guard): $21,372,000
4. Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers, guard): $21,262,500
5. Tracy McGrady (Houston Rockets, guard): $21,126,874
6. Stephon Marbury (New York Knicks, guard): $20,840,625
7. Allen Iverson (Detroit Pistons, guard): $20,840,625
8. Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs, forward/center): $20,598,704
9. Shaquille O’Neal (Phoenix Suns, center): $20,000,000
10. Steve Francis (Houston Rockets, guard): $18,364,480
The late years of a big contract can become a franchise killer. Bosh's last two years (when he is over the age of 30) are $25.3 million and $27.8 million.
As a point of reference, only three out of seven of the top ten NBA salaries are really worth their contracts (Garnet, Kobe & Duncan). Two guys don't even play anymore (Marbury & Francis). Only Kobe and Duncan remain with the team they originally signed the max deal with. It is interesting to note that almost all of these max deals are in the final years of the contract.
Based on these numbers, only 30% of max money deals provide good value over the long term. Wouldn't two solid $10 million players deliver more value than Kidd, Iverson, McGrady, Marbury, Francis and both O'Neals?
The risk of max money deals
Fact is that most max deals don't provide value to the team in the final two to three years because the player is past their prime. However, evidence proves you can always move your bad contract. Problem is that the team needs to take back contracts of relatively equal value.
The risk in signing Bosh to a long term deal is that he is not at the level of a Garnett, Duncan or Kobe. Bosh is at a skill level which is more in line with Jermaine O'Neal or Jason Kidd. In fact, you could easily argue that Chris is a lesser talent than both Iverson and Shaquille - and they are no longer worth their contracts.
Unless Bryan can get great pieces for Jermaine O'Neal which can turn the Raptors into a contender in 2009 and 2010 - it might be best for the franchise's future to trade Bosh now.
The other concern is the status of Bosh's knee. Chris left the Lakers game with a strained knee. It is not a good sign that Bosh is wearing a bulky knee brace at age 24. What happens when he's 28 or 29 and his knee gives out? Then what do the Raps do?
They may find themselves with a massive contract with limited on court production which is virtually untradeable. Is it worth the risk? Remember, Bosh has not played more than 70 games in the past three regular seasons.
And a trade in the next two weeks might return more value because Chris' new team gets two runs at the playoffs. I'm not proposing a Babcock-esque trade with spare parts coming back. However, if Bryan can get say an emerging wing player, a solid veteran big and a good lotto pick (or two) - then its worth considering.
Look, I like Chris a lot - but he's not an upper eschelon elite player. History tells us that signing a second tier superstar to a max money deal rarely pays long term dividends.
Will Bosh in his thirties be worth as much as $27.8 million? Odds are he won't.
I have a feeling that Bryan Colangelo is at least willing to listen to trade proposals regarding Chris Bosh. With the team the way it is now - no one should be untouchable. Not even Toronto's all-star power forward.
Like you, I believe that CB4 is not a true superstar. He is definitely a team leader (as opposed to many max players) but I don't see him as a first ballot HOF member. The only area I question you on is that he can sign for 3 years and then he is free to get a max deal elsewhere. Similar to what he did earlier except (I believe) he can make the max with any team. Do you risk serious injury and leave a ton of money on the table or take the long-term deal? My belief is that Chris signs with the Raps after 2010, decides how well the Raps look for the future, and either forces the sign and trade or sticks it out. Either way we benefit. My concern (shared by you) is that he is breaking down. I watch Jermaine O'Neal and wonder if that is CB4 in 5-6 years.
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I'm glad to see someone talking about this..Bosh is a nice guy and fun to watch but I don't think he is a leader or top tier. If Colangelo is thinking the same thing the Raps are really in a great position heading into next year if they move Bosh in the offseason to a team that fell short in the playoffs and has some emerging players. For example I was thinking the other day about how great Paul Millsap and/or Ronnie Brewer from Utah would look playing here...
And then with O'neal gone Colangelo can sign more players to fill other holes.
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