Bryan Colangelo is a Victim of Bad Luck More than Bad Judgement
By RaptorTalkLately, Bryan Colangelo has been feeling heat from the media and fans in Toronto.
Hindsight is 20/20. I'd love to see what kind of team Colangelo's critics would have built?
Remember, Bryan's teams have averaged 50 wins per year and in his last two years at Phoenix he won 62 and 54 games, while following that up with 47 wins his first year in Toronto.
Bryan is trying my patience, no doubt - but I'm not ready to jump off the bandwagon yet. Colangelo's track record speaks for itself. He is a top tier NBA executive who didn't become a stupid, incompetent idiot overnight. He a graduate of Cornell University and a professional in every respect.
Every GM makes mistakes, even the good ones. Joe Dumars drafted Darko. Danny Ainge tanked so he could draft Oden or Durant and got neither. Mitch Kupchak traded Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. No executive is right 100% of the time.
To be honest, both good luck and bad luck play a role, too. Unfortunately, Colangelo's luck has been on a downhill slide starting with the terrible injury to Jorge Garbajosa.
The events that led us to the Marion deal
Let's look at the sequence of events over the past couple of years that have not gone the way we had hoped.
The critics and wannabe GM's look at Bryan's job in a vacuum.
First, Bryan has financial pressures from MLSE and there are variables beyond his control. Like it or not, that affects his decisions. MLSE's primary focus is profits.
Second, Bryan had no control over getting the first pick in the worst draft in a decade. Remember, he should have been picking Oden if not for a change in NBA draft eligibility rules. Bryan looks a whole lot smarter if he had Duncan, Shaquille, Iverson or LeBron fall in his lap at #1. Obviously there must be a lot of bad GM's because this is the draft order in 2006. Not one pegged Roy as #1:
1. Bargnani
2. Aldridge
3. Morrison
4. Thomas
5. Williams
6. Roy
Lets be fair. Was there anyone definitively suggesting Roy be picked first? The reality is that this was a weak draft and the best of the top five will probably prove to be Bargnani.
Third, no one thought Jose would develop into solid PG. Most scouts pegged him as a good back-up, at best. If Bryan knew Jose would emerge as a legit 'one guard', he doesn't trade for TJ Ford in the first place and the Charlie Villaneuva trade looks completely different.
Fourth, the Raps biggest weakness is on the wing. Is it Bryan's fault that the Raptors have Graham and Humphries as back-ups because Rob Babcock passed on Danny Granger and Andre Igoudala? Just one of those 'obvious' picks would have a huge impact on the Raps today and Bryan looks a lot smarter.
Fifth, Bryan had no way to predict that Garbajosa would suffer a gruesome injury that virtually ended his career with 2 years left on his contract at $4 million per season. The Raptors of the past two years are better with a healthy Garbajosa. Instead they were stuck taking a cap hit and being without their 'glue guy' for the two seasons.
Sixth, Colangelo identified John Salmons a steal and until God intervened, Salmons was a Raptor. If Salmons had not backed out, then the Raptors are a different team and Bryan's a genius.
Seventh, Bryan would not have dealt for Jermaine O'Neal last summer if he foresaw that Andrea Bargnani would break out after a disappointing second year.
Now Bryan has corrected the error that was the JO for TJ trade by acquiring Shawn Marion.
And before you bash Bryan for the O'Neal deal, remember that all GM's go on hot streaks and cold streaks. Plain old dumb luck has a massive impact on a GM's success or failure. Was Jerry Krause a genius or just lucky when Michael Jordan fell in his lap? If Portland had selected Air Jordan at #2, then Jerry Krause and the Bulls are also rans.
What was Danny Ainge's Plan?
Again let me say that I am not happy with the way the Raptors have evolved. But I must say that I am sympathetic to Bryan's misfortune. He keeps rolling the dice and lately comes up snake eyes.
I can empathize with him because in my entrepreneurial career I have either struck out miserably or hit a grand slam. In both scenarios I followed the same game plan. The only difference is whether the factors beyond my control fell in my favor or against me.
There is no such thing as a definitive roadmap to success in the NBA, as some may suggest. Its a matter of:
(1) making smart basketball moves
(2) being opportunistic
(3) getting freakin' lucky
Look at former Toronto Blue Jay, Danny Ainge. His original 'Celtics rebuilding plan' failed miserably. Ainge's plan was to build a young team with lotto picks. The icing on the cake was to (1) land either Oden or Durant in 07 and (2) trade Paul Pierce. When the lotto balls didn't fall in his favor he started dealing and the consensus from experts was he lost his mind. Paul Pierce was asking to get out and had Garnett vetoed a trade to Boston.
Then the tables began to turn with a trade that was largely panned. Not many experts thought acquiring an aging, high ticket, injury prone Ray Allen for Jeff Green made any sense at all. In fact, Celtics fans were down on that deal like many Raptor fans were down on the JO and Marion deals.
Then Kevin McHale came along. McHale turned down a better deal from Chicago and moved KG to Boston. All of the sudden the tables had completely turned and Danny Ainge looked like a genius. Did he follow his plan? Hell no. To his credit - Ainge pounced on opportunity and changed his plan to win a championship.
Has Bryan Colangelo made mistakes? Yes. But I also would argue that he has had an extraordinary run of bad luck. The challenge facing Bryan is to turn it around and the Marion trade was the first step in that direction. Clearly, Jermaine O'Neal's presence has not helped.
Its easy to play Monday morning quarterback and that's what being a sports fan is all about. On the other hand, the way some fans and media critics analyze events in Raptorland is quite naive, to be honest. Then again, right or wrong, everyone is entitled to an opinion.
At the end of the day, I'm prepared to let Bryan's retooling plans play out over the upcoming weeks and months.
I just hope Bryan's luck improves for the benefit of all loyal Raptor fans.
Totally agree with your analysis of Colangelo's tenure thus far. I've agreed with most of the decisions that Colangelo has made because, at the time, they made sense given the situation.
The Marion deal is no different. He's rolling with the punches and that's really all you can ask for of a GM. There are a lot of GMs out there right now too scared to make a mistake that they end up doing nothing. I'll take the Toronto situation any day.
I agree that this is the first step in the right direction and I recently wrote an article on why the Raptors are still worth watching. Check it out at threeinthekey.com and let me know what you think.
Keep up the great work; will definitely be visiting back to see what else is on your mind.
threeinthekey.com
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Good, smart column. Bookmarked.
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This entire article is about "what ifs"..frankly that does not make me think Colenglo is a top tier GM. Good GMs do not allow their team to go back to a mediocre state. Good GMS on teams such as Spurs, Magic, Dallas, Detroit, maybe even Denver built there teams to be perennial playoff bound teams. I'm sure they had there course of bad luck as well, but overcame that with shrewd moves...something Colenglo has not shown as yet.
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Great post, puts some things in perspective after last night's loss. Hopefully Colangelo can get back on track this summer. (And landing Aminu wouldn't hurt either.)
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Haha with a name like 'Hater' and unproductive comments like that - do you really expect to be taken seriously?
RaptorTalk: Tedd (aka Hater) is a great guy and he's welocme to complain anytime - even if we don't agree with him.
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Yeah he can complain but he's not exactly coming off as objective - therefore his points may be dismissed although they may have some merit.
It's not exactly too thoughtful to compare BC & the Raps to the established franchises of San Antonio, Orlando, Detroit, Denver & Dallas. (P.S. I'm thankful we aren't Dallas - the most pathetic franchise in the NBA based on input-output ratio.)
Detroit has also had their ups and downs, winning 1 title but being stymied ever since. Denver has gotten things together after a long battle with mediocrity in the post-season. Orlando has been resurrected by Otis Smith but for a long team they were not much of a team to speak of either.
It takes time and a foundation to build upon to create a successful franchise - something that BC has not truly had with the Raps. Inheriting a shambles that was the Rob Babcock era (Worst trade possibly in sports history & awful drafting). Gaining the #1 pick in the weakest draft of the decade - something which may have actually worked against him in retrospect. With limited cap space and limited trade/FA options he still managed to turn around one of the worst teams in the NBA into a competitive unit. With success came higher expectations though and the Raps were never likely to progress too far with the team available. But like you said if the Raps had made any of the obvious moves of attaining Granger, Iguodala, getting anything for their best player at all or even less obvious moves such as drafting Bynum at 7 (at a position of need) - what a better position the Raps and BC would have been in to facilitate their success.
A GM can only do so much - has BC made some mistakes, yes - but what GM hasn't? GM's are generally as good as the luck they get, the money they can throw around and the shrewd moves they can make. Would San Antonio be where they are not if they had not gotten Duncan, Orlando (Howard), Denver (Carmelo). And on the flip side would Detroit be struggling the way they are now had they drafted Wade or Carmelo?
San Antonio to me are the model franchise in the NBA - incredible scouting and a low payroll - whilst still remaining a contender all these years. Yet even they relied on luck with the draft balls to raise them out of pre-Duncan mediocrity. Similarly, the Celtics franchise probably would have tasted success much quicker had things gone their way in that draft.
People like to armchair GM but they don't know what moves are actually available - what discussions BC has behind the scenes. He could be trying everything that people are thinking but the transactions just aren't there. Hindsight is always great but whilst everyone can criticize after the fact - I respect BC for taking the risks and having no regrets in trying to make this franchise better (at least he doesn't backtrack like some ppl). Is he the best GM, no - but he is the best the Raps have had by far.
He does what he can with an unattractive market - You can't sculpt the Venus de Milo with shit.
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hmm i would like to say . I love your blog great Post.
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