By RaptorTalk


The next ten games of the Raptors schedule will be very telling, beginning with what should be an easy home win over the hapless New Jersey Nets.

With the recent emphatic losses in Orlando and Miami, the so-called 'tough part' of the Raptors schedule is over. Today, the Raptors sit at 11-17. At this point, I expected them to be much closer to .500 and even as high as 16-12 based on their raw talent. 
      
    

Here are the next 10 games and the records of the teams they face:

Remaining December Games
v. New Jersey (2-24)
v. New Orleans (11-13)
@ Detroit (11-14)
v. Detroit (11-14)
v. Charlotte (10-14)

Early January Games
@ Boston (20-4)
v. San Antonio (13-10)
@ Orlando (19-6)
@ Philadelphia (6-19)
v. Boston (20-4)

The Raps play 6 home and 4 away. If the Raptors are going to turn around this season, it has to start in the next 10 games. That said, Toronto will be lucky to get through this stretch at 5-5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go only 4-6.

The most interesting stretch of games occurs between now and the end of December. I’ll be at three of those home games starting with the Nets game.

Prior to the season, I would have projected a 4-1 record over that stretch. Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors struggled to go 3-2 and thus sit at 14-19 to start the New Year. Problem is that any ground they may gain will likely be surrendered in the 10 days following New Year’s Day when they face Boston twice, Orlando and San Antonio.

My quasi optimistic 5-5 prediction means that on January 10th, the Raptors will sport a mediocre record of 16-22 – six games under .500 with 44 games left.


The Bosh Challenge

The challenge moving forward is to win enough games to keep Bosh happy so that he will re-sign with Toronto. A 44 win season would likely do that. Toronto would then finish in 5th or 6th in the East and could point to some positive momentum.
 
If this team is to win 44 games, then after January 10th they need to go on a 28W-16L run. Even with an easier schedule that is a tough task.

Without a trade that shakes up the line-up (making the team stronger defensively) and the dismissal of Jay Triano (and the hiring of a coach who demands the Raptors play gritty and hard every night) - I simply can’t see it happening.

Right now, all we can do is watch and see if the Dino’s can start winning consistently and often with the team and coach they have now.